In late 2024, North Korea sent troops to help defend the Kursk region of Russia from Ukraine. International officials estimate that 14,000-15,000 North Korean troops were initially deployed to assist Russia in its war in Ukraine.

Now, Ukrainian and international intelligence agencies suspect that North Korea is planning to send an additional 30,000-50,000 troops to Russia. Ukrainian officials have also stated that North Korean ballistic missiles are being fired from Russia.

President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has raised concerns that North Korea’s improved combat and weapons experience could pose a security threat to Ukraine, as well as the Asia-Pacific region.

Defence in Russia

Observers have had mixed responses to Zelenskyy’s remarks. Oleksandr Kovalenko, a military and political expert at the Ukrainian Centre for Security Studies, told DW that new troops from North Korea would likely be used to secure Russia’s border territories. Aside from remaining in Kursk, North Korean soldiers could also help secure southwestern Vornezh.

“These forces could free up Russian occupational forces,” Kovalenko said. “Russia would then be able to deploy around 15,000 troops to battles along front lines in Vovchansk, Kharkiv, Sumy or even Chernihiv.”

Kovalenko does not expect North Korean troops to fight on Ukrainian territory.

The Russian military analyst Ruslan Leviev agrees. “It’s one thing to recapture Russian territory,” he told DW, “and an entirely different thing to be present on internationally recognised Ukrainian territory, taking part in a war of aggression.”

“Diplomatically speaking,” he said, “those are two entirely different concepts.”

Russia not outgunned

Leviev said he had not seen concrete evidence of a noteworthy North Korean presence in Russia. He said Moscow had enough troops available without having to draw foreign soldiers into the fight.

“If you look at the front line, you can see that Russia’s forces have been fairly active since mid-July,” Leviev said. “That’s a clear sign they still have enough forces.”

Estimates by the economist Janis Kluge, of the German Institute for International and Security Affairs (SWP), back this up. “While Russia’s recruitment campaign has shown signs of strain this year, regional spending figures indicate that Russia is still recruiting around 1,000 contract soldiers each day,” he recently wrote in a report.

Intelligence on North Korea’s short- and medium-range ballistic systems, the KN-23 and KN-24, is far less speculative. Ukraine’s Main Directorate of Intelligence (HUR) states that North Korea has delivered 148 KN-23 and KN-24 missiles since 2025.

In July, Zelenskyy said one such missile had struck a home near Ukraine’s Kryvyi Rih, killing two parents and three children.

The HUR recently reported that a North Korean missile unit was deploying to Russia’s Voronezh region, where it could be equipped with 120 ballistic missiles. Zelenskyy has taken this as indication that Russia’s strategic reserve is depleted.

Kovalenko has come to a different conclusion. Instead of having run out of reserves, he said, he believes that Russia is looking to launch a higher number of missiles ‘to spread more terror’.

‘Instruments of terror’

Ukrainian military sources say North Korean missiles are similar to Russia’s Iskander missiles, but with a greater payload, longer range and lower accuracy.

The military expert Yuri Fyodorov calls North Korea’s missiles ‘instruments of terror’. He told DW that ‘it is very difficult to hit a small target with North Korean weapons’. He said he believed that Russia had deliberately targeted residential areas with these missiles.

Like the Russian Iskander 9M723, KN-23 and KN-24 missiles can only be stopped by US-made Patriot air-defence systems, which Ukraine has run critically low on.

Leviev said ballistic missiles would play a key role in this phase of the war. As Ukraine’s stockpiles run low, he said, it will become a growing priority to Russia to keep a steady supply.

This summer, Leviev said, he has seen Russia launch far more ballistic missiles than in previous years. Should Russia’s missile supply run low by winter, he said, ‘there will still be North Korea reserves, to make sure Ukraine cannot catch its breath’.

No turning point

None of the experts DW spoke with believes that North Korea’s involvement will bring about a turning point in Russia’s war with Ukraine.

Jenny Town, of the US-based Foreign Policy Research Institute, said the time had passed for North Korea’s involvement to make a significant difference. Instead, she said, Russia and North Korea have established a mutually beneficial partnership that is only likely to deepen through the course of the war with Ukraine.

Kovalenko also doesn’t expect Russia to make substantial territorial gains along the front lines, but he is concerned about the upcoming winter. “October, November and December could become very trying for Ukraine,” he said.

Russian forces could benefit from a possible new military call up, from freeing up fighters it replaces with North Korean troops and from a further stream of ballistic missiles. “That would be no good for the course of the war, and for Ukraine’s war interests,” Fyodorov said.

DW