Muscat – The US naval blockade on Iranian ports has already pushed oil prices higher and could trigger wider economic and food security challenges globally, an Omani economist has warned.

Speaking on Oman TV, Dr Mohammed Hummaid Nasser Al Wardi, economic analyst and member of the State Council, said the blockade following the collapse of US-Iran negotiations contributed to immediate volatility in energy markets, reflecting concerns over potential disruptions to global oil supply.

He said any blockade of Iranian ports would significantly affect the country’s oil exports, estimated at around 2mn bpd, and could push global prices higher sharply. “A sudden increase in energy prices would have broad repercussions for the global economy,” he said, noting that higher oil prices typically drive rising inflation and increased production costs across industries.

Al Wardi warned the impact would extend beyond energy markets to food prices, citing Food and Agriculture Organization assessments that current tensions could evolve into a wider global food crisis if the situation escalates. He said the link between energy and food production is direct, with rising fuel costs increasing expenses tied to agricultural machinery, irrigation, fertiliser production and crop transportation. The Gulf region’s role as a key supplier of  fertilisers globally means any price surge would place additional pressure on developing economies.

Al Wardi outlined three possible scenarios. The continuation of the blockade could trigger sharp energy price increases and intensified diplomatic pressure from major powers pushing both sides towards negotiations. A second scenario involves limited military escalation, including targeted airstrikes alongside the blockade. The third would see international diplomatic efforts succeed in bringing both sides back to the negotiating table and reaching a settlement.