Muscat – Tourism destinations across the Middle East and North Africa are preparing for a gradual return of Chinese visitors as outbound travel from China continues to recover, even as recent geopolitical tensions have temporarily weighed on demand for the region.

New research by Dragon Trail International, an official research partner of Arabian Travel Market (ATM), suggests that the Chinese outbound market remains resilient, creating fresh opportunities for MENA destinations willing to rebuild confidence and adapt to changing travel habits.

According to the survey, 77% of Chinese travel agents reported higher outbound travel demand in the first half of 2026 compared with a year earlier, while 70% said bookings for summer travel had increased.

Official figures from China’s National Immigration Administration showed border crossings by mainland Chinese citizens rose 10.7% during the same period.

For MENA, however, recovery is expected to be gradual.

Recent regional instability affected travel sentiment, particularly among Chinese tourists, who remain highly sensitive to safety and security considerations. Chinese government travel advisories covering GCC countries have since been lifted, but researchers expect it could take time for confidence to fully return.

Dragon Trail forecasts stronger momentum into 2027 if regional stability continues.

“China remains one of the world’s most influential outbound tourism markets,” said Danielle Curtis, Regional Portfolio Director – UAE at RX Global.

“As traveller confidence returns, destinations that understand changing consumer behaviour and adapt their marketing strategies will be best placed to capture renewed demand.”

The research found that 42% of Chinese travel agents expect high-net-worth and luxury travellers to offer the strongest recovery potential for MENA destinations, while 40% agents expect fully independent travellers and 38% expect group travel and younger visitors segments to show best recovery.

That could prove important for Gulf destinations, where investment in luxury resorts, cultural attractions and high-end experiences has accelerated in recent years.

Chinese travel patterns are also evolving. Travellers are booking closer to departure and increasingly opting for single-destination holidays rather than multi-country itineraries.

Among MENA markets, travel agents identified Türkiye as having the strongest immediate growth potential following the introduction of visa-free travel for Chinese visitors. Saudi Arabia and the UAE were also seen as offering considerable long-term potential, particularly in luxury tourism.

For destinations elsewhere in the Gulf, including Oman, the findings underline the importance of positioning individual experiences – from nature and heritage to premium hospitality – more clearly for Chinese audiences rather than relying solely on wider regional itineraries.

Sienna Parulis-Cook, Director of Marketing and Communications at Dragon Trail International, said Chinese outbound tourism had shown “remarkable resilience” despite external disruptions.

“Outbound travel overall continues to grow strongly, creating a significant opportunity for destinations that can rebuild traveller confidence,” she said.