Muscat – Oman is preparing for a potentially impactful weather season as a strong El Niño effect is forecast to influence the sultanate’s weather patterns from September 2026 to May 2027, according to a national report issued by the Civil Aviation Authority (CAA) through the National Multi-Hazard Early Warning Center.

Data from the US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) indicate that El Niño is intensifying, with peak strength expected in November and December 2026.

An analysis of 45 years of historical data by the centre has identified a clear association between El Niño events and increased moisture and rainfall linked to winter western troughs over Oman, particularly in the northern regions.

During El Niño years, rainfall has historically exceeded long-term averages by around 20% from September to November, 31% from December to February, and up to 54 % from March to May.

Meteorological experts say the anticipated conditions could resemble previous strong El Niño episodes, including those of 1997–1998 and 2015–2016. In March 2016, severe thunderstorms and heavy rainfall affected Oman, with precipitation reaching 120.4mm in Mudhaibi, contributing to increased local water resources and dam levels.

The coming season could bring periods of heavy to torrential rain, raising the risk of flash floods in low-lying areas. Other potential hazards include strong winds, hail, rough seas and temporary disruptions to road traffic and essential services.

Temperatures are also expected to remain above normal across most parts of the sultanate between October and December 2026. However, the report cautions that the anticipated warmth reflects a combination of global and regional climate influences rather than El Niño alone.

Long-range indicators also point to the possibility of cold spells in subsequent months, with sub-zero temperatures on high mountain peaks and potential snowfall if atmospheric conditions are favourable. Meanwhile, statistical models suggest that the Arabian Sea will retain a baseline probability of tropical system formation between October and December.

The National Multi-Hazard Early Warning Center is continuing round-the-clock monitoring and coordination with government, military and private-sector entities in preparation for potential weather extremes.

Authorities aim to strengthen readiness through historical climate analysis and advanced early-warning systems, with the objective of protecting communities, limiting disruption and ensuring a coordinated response throughout the coming season.