Muscat – A pioneering study by Sultan Qaboos University (SQU) has identified earthquake vulnerable hotspots in Seeb, Muscat and called for targeted retrofitting and stricter land-use policies to improve preparedness.

Led by Dr Abdullah Ansari, Research Professor at SQU’s Earthquake Monitoring Centre, the research classified Seeb into five risk zones based on seismic, geotechnical, physical, structural, environmental and social factors. Al Hail North and Old Al Khoud were found to be among the most at risk, while Mabelah showed signs of resilience.

Rusayl Industrial Estate emerged as critically vulnerable due to clustering of industrial facilities and fuel stations near densely populated neighbourhoods, amplifying hazard exposure. “Our results show that areas with older buildings and industrial activity face the greatest risk. Retrofitting and stricter planning rules are urgently needed,” Ansari said.

The study revealed that more than half the buildings in Mawaleh, Al Hail and Al Khoud could sustain moderate damage in the event of a strong quake, while up to 40% structures in Rusayl face extensive damage. In contrast, Muscat Hills and Al Mouj recorded the lowest vulnerability, with modern construction helping limit potential damage.

Researchers recommended urgent upgrades to land-use policies in high-risk urban centres, along with targeted retrofitting of older structures to reduce vulnerability. They also called for raising public awareness and incorporating risk data into long-term planning.

“This is the first comprehensive multi-criteria decision making-based earthquake risk assessment of its kind in the Arabian region. It provides policymakers and planners practical tools to make risk-informed decisions in line with Oman Vision 2040,” Ansari said.

Conducted with international partners from Norway, South Korea, Saudi Arabia and Australia, the study stressed that earthquake preparedness must become an integral part of urban development.

The study contributes to Oman’s sustainable development goals by offering a risk-informed framework to support resilient urban planning in rapidly growing cities such as Sultan Haitham City and Yiti City. It aligns with the United Nations’ Sustainable Development Goal 11 on building resilient cities.

By integrating such data-driven insights into planning and construction policies, the researchers believe Oman can enhance disaster resilience, reduce financial risks and safeguard communities. The framework developed can also be applied to other rapidly growing Omani cities such as Duqm, Salalah and Suhar, helping integrate disaster risk reduction into major infrastructure projects, the study stated.

Earthquake Risk Hotspots in Seeb

Al Hail North

Moderate to high vulnerability due to old, non-engineered houses

Recommendation – Retrofit housing and improve building codes

Old Al Khoud

Ageing infrastructure

Recommendation – Upgrade lifeline services, enforce maintenance of older buildings

Rusayl Industrial Estate

Hazard exposure from clustered industrial units

Recommendation – Conduct industrial safety audits, strengthen emergency response

Mabelah

Informal settlements but relatively better resilience

Recommendation – Focus on community-based preparedness and awareness

Muscat Hills

Low vulnerability, planned urban growth

Recommendation – Maintain hillside stability and monitor development