Muscat – According to new research from Boston Consulting Group (BCG), world trade in goods is projected to grow at an average annual rate of 2.9% through 2033, with the GCC region playing an increasingly pivotal role in connecting major trade routes between East and West.
The BCG report reveals a strong outlook for GCC trade, with total trade volume expected to reach $2.3tn by 2033. This growth is driven by significant expansion across multiple trade corridors, with China emerging as the largest growth market at $88bn (5.7% CAGR), followed by Japan at $46bn (9.4% CAGR). The analysis also highlights that the GCC’s non-hydrocarbon trade will grow by 3.5% annually, underscoring the region’s successful economic diversification efforts.
As global trade patterns shift, the GCC is strengthening its position as a critical connector between East and West. This is evidenced by the broader transformation in global trade flows, where China’s trade with the Global South is expected to increase by $1.25tn, and trade between developing nations is projected to grow by $673bn by 2033. The GCC’s strategic location and expanding infrastructure position the region to capture value from these evolving trade dynamics.
Rami Rafih, Managing Director and Partner at BCG, said, “The reconfiguration of global trade flows presents a pivotal moment for the GCC. As trade routes transform, the region is not just a geographic intermediary but a central orchestrator of new patterns. The GCC’s deliberate investment in capabilities positions it to achieve greater success by developing proactive and risk-based options rather than defaulting to reactionary responses. The key is leveraging this foundation to shape emerging trade corridors, particularly as commerce in the Global South evolves.”
The report identifies major transformations across key trading regions that will reshape global commerce. While North America solidifies its position as a resilient trade bloc, with US-Mexico trade increasing by $315bn by 2033, ASEAN stands out as a significant beneficiary of global shifts, with 3.7% annual trade growth. India’s trajectory is particularly noteworthy, with total trade expected to reach $1.8tn annually by 2033, driven by its growing role as a global manufacturing hub.
The increasing power of the Global South represents one of the most significant developments in global trade. Representing 18% of global GDP and 62% of the world’s population, these 133 developing nations are set to significantly expand their trade. Annual trade among Global South nations will grow by $673bn over the next decade, while trade between the Global South and developed economies is projected to reach $1.67tn annually by 2033.
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