Muscat – Economic growth across the GCC countries is projected to accelerate, with an average expansion of 3.7% in 2024, followed by a robust 4.5% growth in 2025, according to the latest forecasts from the GCC Statistical Center (GCC-Stat) in Muscat.

The regional growth is expected to stabilise at 3.5% in 2026, driven primarily by a rebound in oil production, particularly as the OPEC+ group gradually relaxes production quotas from the second half of 2024. The GCC-Stat’s forecast also factors in the continued development of new gas fields and the region’s swift recovery in key sectors such as transportation, tourism, and infrastructure. Expansionary fiscal policies in public finance are expected to support this growth momentum.

GCC-Stat further anticipates that the non-oil sector will experience a notable acceleration, registering a 4.5% growth in 2024, with moderate increases of 3.3% and 4.1% in 2025 and 2026, respectively. This growth is expected to be driven by a surge in private sector activity, particularly in tourism, transport, logistics, and retail.

Additionally, large-scale infrastructure projects across the GCC will bolster growth in related industries, further stimulating private sector investment.

The forecasts also highlight that continued economic diversification efforts in the region will pay off in the coming years. Key sectors such as renewable energy, technology, innovation, and manufacturing are expected to see significant growth as part of long-term diversification strategies implemented by GCC governments.

In 2023, the GCC’s total GDP at constant prices amounted to $1.691tn, marking a modest 0.5% growth compared to the previous year. The non-oil sector was a key contributor, expanding by 3.3%. However, the region’s average per capita GDP at current prices fell by 5% in 2023 to $36,700, down from $38,600 in 2022. Despite this, the GCC’s GDP at current prices accounted for 2% of global GDP and 60.5% of total Arab GDP.

Inflation rates across the GCC are expected to remain relatively stable over the next three years, with forecasts of 2.4%, 2.6%, and 2.1% for 2024, 2025, and 2026, respectively. Potential risks to inflation include rising consumer prices, higher import costs for raw materials, increased domestic consumption, and higher public spending driven by stronger employment and wage growth.