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Climate change made Central Europe floods more likely: Study

25 Sep 2024

Berlin, Germany – Climate change has doubled the likelihood of the heavy rainfall that led to catastrophic flooding in Central Europe, according to a study released on Wednesday.

The flooding in mid-September left 24 people dead and caused damage to property and infrastructure worth billions.

The report by World Weather Attribution, an international collective of scientists, said the four days of rainfall from Storm Boris was ‘by far’ the heaviest ever recorded in Central Europe.

The scientists said the floods had been made twice as likely because of fossil-fuel induced climate change, which made such rainfall more intense.

A storm like Boris is likely to occur on average about once every 100 to 300 years in today’s climate with 1.3 degrees Celsius (2.3 degrees Fahrenheit) of warming from pre-industrial levels.

However, if the Earth warms to 2 degrees Celsius (3.6 degrees Fahrenheit) above pre-industrial levels – as is expected to happen in the 2050s – such storms will occur 50% more frequently and bring at least 5% more rain, the report added.

What do scientists suggest?

Although the flash study has not been peer-reviewed, it was conducted using scientifically accepted techniques.

“Yet again, these floods highlight the devastating results of fossil fuel-driven warming,” said Joyce Kimutai, the study’s lead author and a climate researcher at Imperial College London.

“Until oil, gas and coal are replaced with renewable energy, storms like Boris will unleash even heavier rainfall, driving economy-crippling floods.”

DW

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