First Gonu and then Phet, will Keila be the next cyclonic storm to reach Oman’s shores? Some weather forecasters say that a low pressure formed during the weekend over the Arabian Sea is slowly developing into a tropical storm.
Maldives has already named the expected cyclone as Keila. This is according to the norms of the World Meteorological Organisation where cyclones in the Arabian Sea and Bay of Bengal are named from the options submitted by countries situated in the northern Indian Ocean.
Currently, weather forecasters are divided on the direction the storm is expected to take, its magnitude and the place of its landfall.
According to Pakistan Weather Portal, Cyclone Keila is likely to be formed on Monday evening. But extremeweatherforecast.com says that the tropical storm may be formed a day later. “It will be weaker than expected but there will be lots of rain in Oman,” the website said on Sunday.
According to extremeweatherforecast.com, the cyclone will start from the western Indian coast of Saurashtra and west of Mumbai. “In Oman, it will make landfall near the town of Khaluf in the wilayat of Mahout in the Al Wusta region,” extremeweatherforecast.com said.
Pakistan Weather Portal said a week ago that upper air cyclonic circulations could intensify into a cyclone or a tropical depression on June 2, which could then move towards Gujarat and the adjoining Sindh coast. However the website later revised its forecast and said that a low pressure system could form on June 5 or June 6 and is likely to hit Oman on Friday.
According to BBC, the expected storm will move north-west, then westwards and again back to make landfall between Mumbai and Goa in India.
Other forecasters expect the storm to move towards the Sindh-Gujarat coastline and then enter Rajasthan, a track followed by the cyclones that occurred in 1998 and 1999.
When contacted, Met officials in Muscat said that they are currently monitoring the situation. “The latest satellite images indicate existence of clusters of convective clouds over east of the Arabian Sea. Omani and global numerical prediction charts indicate the possibility of a formation of a low pressure system during the next 24 hours, approximately 100km from the west Indian coast. But right now there is nothing to worry,” they said.